Unless something drastically changes, stagnation in the broadest sense of the word-from economic depression to social apathy-is the only possible medium- and long-term scenario for Russia. The respondents agreed unanimously that the authorities will not try to change RussiaвЂ™s development vector within the countryвЂ™s existing political and economic models. Most of the economists and business leaders interviewed for this study agree that Russian elites are aware of the problems facing their country but are mired in inaction by feelings of complacency and a widespread reluctance to engage in any long-term strategic planning or change: the only acceptable changes right now are short-term plans with instantaneous effects. The countryвЂ™s economic risks are also exacerbated by unaddressed environmental challenges and the lack of steps being taken to address them, such as decarbonization. This overcentralization, coupled with constraints on the media and other outlets for freedom of speech, means that the Russian authorities get little feedback and consequently have at best a blurry picture of what life is really like for average Russians. One of the factors inhibiting that growth is the stateвЂ™s excessive interference in the economy and indeed all other aspects of life, creating an overcentralized and ineffective administrative state. Most of the key challenges facing the Russian political system are related to the lack of economic growth. Many of the challenges and potential crises these experts discussed are intertwined, including RussiaвЂ™s human capital crisis, the numerous structural economic challenges it faces on energy and technology policy, and the apparent absence of a sense of urgency among the ruling elites. To project RussiaвЂ™s likely development trajectory over the next ten to fifteen years, the authors asked twenty-three economists and business leaders to identify the biggest challenges for Russia, when they will materialize, what the consequences may be, and whether they can be overcome under the current political system. What comes after that does not concern them: вЂњAfter us, the deluge.вЂќ 1 As Moscow finally wakes up to the reality of climate change, the prevailing attitude among members of the ruling class appears to be that there is enough oil and gas to keep the state coffers full, buy votersвЂ™ loyalty, and control civil society and the media for as long as the countryвЂ™s current leaders are in power (until 2036, when President Vladimir Putin may at last have to step down). With all the problems facing the Russian economy, many are wondering how the government will respond.

Youth consequences СЂСѓСЃСЃРєРёР№